Cambodia investment risks in 2026

Short answer

AMRO cut its 2026 growth forecast for Cambodia to 3.9% in its October 2026 quarterly update, down from 4.2% in July, with inflation at 4.9%. The risks it highlights are the Thailand border, non-performing loans above 8%, energy and food prices, and a severe El Niño. Meanwhile the CDC approved about $5.92 billion of fixed-asset investment across 382 projects between January and September 2026.

The growth outlook

AMRO’s July 2026 Annual Consultation Report set a baseline of 4.2% growth in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027, assuming oil averages USD 90 to 100 a barrel. Its October 2026 quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook revised Cambodia’s 2026 figure down to 3.9%, keeping 2027 at 4.9%, and lowered 2026 inflation to 4.9% while raising the 2027 figure to 3.0%.

The October revision cites a risk that matters more for Cambodia than for most economies: a severe El Niño. AMRO notes that agriculture accounts for 16.1% of Cambodian GDP and 33.4% of employment, and that food makes up 43.3% of the consumer price index, with rice alone at 8.3%. It judges El Niño firmly established and likely to become very strong towards the end of 2026, with effects that may extend into 2027.

Investment is still arriving

The CDC approved USD 5.92 billion of fixed-asset investment across 382 projects between January and September 2026, with about 217,000 jobs expected (Xinhua, 14 October 2026). September alone brought 36 projects worth about USD 470 million and roughly 17,000 jobs, according to the CDC, split between the CDC and the Capital-Provincial Investment Sub-Committees (Agence Kampuchea Presse, 14 October 2026). Earlier in the year the same series read $5.22 billion across 309 projects for January to July and $4.7 billion across 276 projects for the first half.

Industry remains the leading driver, with infrastructure and tourism growing. The Ministry of Commerce attributes the inflows to RCEP and the bilateral free trade agreements with China, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates. In September 2026, domestic investors were the largest source of capital at 57.80%, followed by China at 28.66% and Malaysia at 6.52%.

Risks AMRO highlights

Risk	What AMRO reports	What it means for an entrant
Thailand border	Cross-border activity is expected to remain suspended in 2026, constraining trade, tourism and labour mobility. Around one million Cambodian migrant workers returned from Thailand in 2025.	Check whether your supply chain or customers depend on Thai routes, and expect a tighter labour market.
Banking sector	The non-performing loan ratio among deposit-taking institutions was 8.3% at end-2025, up from 7.1% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2023. Retail trade accounts for the largest share of impaired loans at 21.4%, then agriculture at 12% and real estate at 9.7%. AMRO sees limited immediate spillover.	Plan your banking relationships and local financing assumptions carefully, and check the credit position of any partner you extend terms to.
Energy and inflation	Headline inflation is forecast at 4.9% in 2026, and the current account deficit is expected to widen to 8.5% of GDP from 3.7% in 2025.	Stress-test operating costs, logistics and power.
Weather and food prices	AMRO warns that a severe El Niño could disrupt agricultural production, affect rural incomes and raise household living costs, with effects possibly extending into 2027.	If you buy agricultural inputs or sell into rural markets, model a supply and price shock.
Real estate	Construction remained weak in 2025; AMRO calls for closer monitoring of real estate and non-bank activity. Real estate loans are about a third of bank lending.	Be selective on property-linked projects and partners.

Enforcement and the tariff position as of 2026

Two further items belong in any 2026 risk view, because both are commercial rather than moral.

There is still no commercial court. The US State Department's 2026 Investment Climate Statement records that the commercial court had not launched as at March 2026, and that an out-of-court mechanism has been in place since March 2024. Commercial disputes can be arbitrated at the National Commercial Arbitration Centre, whose awards are recognised and enforced in Cambodia, but a contract has to be written for that route. See our guide on enforcing contracts and exiting.
The United States applies a 19% reciprocal tariff to goods originating in Cambodia, under the agreement signed on 26 October 2025, with identified products exempted. The same agreement records that Cambodia eliminated tariffs on 100% of US industrial and agricultural products. For a manufacturer exporting to the United States, that combination has to be in the landed-cost model, and the preferential position for US-origin inputs into Cambodia is a separate question with its own conditions.

How to weigh this

These are macro signals, not a verdict on any one project. A manufacturer with export orders faces different risks from a consumer brand or a property developer. A market research study tests these risks against your sector before you commit capital.

Questions investors ask

Is Cambodia still attracting foreign investment in 2026?

Yes. The CDC approved about $5.92 billion of fixed-asset investment across 382 projects between January and September 2026, expected to create roughly 217,000 jobs, according to figures published on 14 October 2026.

What is the current growth forecast for Cambodia?

AMRO October 2026 quarterly update projects 3.9% real GDP growth in 2026, revised down from 4.2% in July, with 4.9% growth in 2027 and inflation of 4.9% in 2026.

What are the banking sector risks?

Non-performing loans at deposit-taking institutions were 8.3% at the end of 2025, up from 7.1% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2023, with retail trade the largest share of impaired loans at 21.4%, then agriculture at 12% and real estate at 9.7%. AMRO sees limited immediate spillover, but it is a reason to look carefully at the credit position of any partner you extend terms to.

How much does the Thai border matter?

AMRO expects cross-border activity with Thailand to remain suspended in 2026, which constrains trade, tourism and labour mobility, and around a million Cambodian migrant workers returned from Thailand in 2025. If your supply chain or your customers cross that border, it belongs at the top of your risk list.

Is there a commercial court?

No. The 2026 Investment Climate Statement records that the commercial court had still not launched as at March 2026, with an out-of-court mechanism in place since March 2024 and arbitration available at the National Commercial Arbitration Centre. Enforcement is therefore a contractual design question, which is why our guide on <a href="/guides/contract-enforcement-and-exit/">enforcing contracts and exiting</a> exists.

Does the US trade agreement change my costs?

The agreement signed on 26 October 2025 maintains a 19% reciprocal tariff on goods originating in Cambodia, with identified products exempted, and Cambodia eliminated tariffs on 100% of US industrial and agricultural products. For exporters to the United States that is a modelling question, not a detail.

What is the El Nino risk?

AMRO flags a severe El Nino as a downside risk, judging it firmly established and likely to become very strong towards the end of 2026, with effects possibly extending into 2027. Agriculture is 16.1% of Cambodian GDP and 33.4% of employment, and food is 43.3% of the consumer price index, so a supply and price shock is plausible.

Should these risks stop me entering Cambodia?

They should shape the entry, not end it. The question is whether your specific product, channel and supply chain can absorb the downside we have described, and whether your contract and structure can survive a weak year. That assessment belongs in the research brief, not in a general reading of the macro.

Official tools to use alongside this guide

Sources

General information only, not legal, tax or investment advice. Laws, rules and figures change. Confirm the current position with licensed Cambodian professionals before acting.

Cambodia investment risks in 2026: what to check first